Volume 4 – 10 Jan 2024
Look Forward
Funding the Future
Welcome to Look Forward. In this issue, our teams take you inside some of the biggest trends shaping the business world and global economy from now until the end of the decade.
For my entire career, I’ve been working with data —for energy markets, to manage risk and to make strategic investments. The data and analysis in this report point to a future in which leaders face a more challenging and costly operating environment. At a time when the need to finance economic growth, climate resilience, the energy transition and aging populations is as great as ever, decision-makers must also confront higher debt levels, higher interest rates and higher degrees of fragmentation within and among nations.
Despite the uneven state of global affairs, I remain optimistic about the years ahead. I still believe in the value of public-private partnerships and in the power of technology and innovation to execute and finance the transition to a sustainable future. Finding solutions won’t be straightforward, but leaders have the data and insights to inform their thinking and to propel organizations to success.
In closing, I want to thank Look Forward’s researchers, analysts, writers and editors for the fabulous work they do, and I want to thank you, our readers, for your interest in the insights our teams have uncovered about the themes transforming our world.
S&P Global
Douglas L. Peterson
S&P Global
President and Chief Executive Officer, S&P Global
Doug Peterson has served as President, Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of S&P Global since 2013. He joined the company in 2011 as President of its credit ratings business.
Through a mix of organic investments and strategic transactions, including the successful integration of IHS Markit in 2022, Mr. Peterson has repositioned S&P Global to realize its vision of “Powering Global Markets” with data, analytics, and benchmarks. His commitment to the company’s people, customers, and partners, and his focus on international expansion, cutting-edge technology, AI, innovation, and sustainability services are the cornerstones of the company’s strategy.
Mr. Peterson is a leading voice on sustainability and energy transition. He serves on the Board of the UN Global Compact, and in 2021 he led a workstream of the G7’s Impact Taskforce to mobilize private capital through consistent global standards to measure, value, and account for sustainability.
Before joining S&P Global, Mr. Peterson was the Chief Operating Officer of Citibank, Citigroup’s principal banking entity. Over his 26 years at Citigroup, he served as CEO of Citigroup Japan, Chief Auditor, and in leadership roles in Latin America.
Mr. Peterson chairs the U.S.-Japan Business Council and is a member of the Boards of Directors of the Japan Society and National Bureau of Economic Research. In addition, he serves on the Advisory Board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee and as a Trustee of Claremont McKenna College and the Paul Taylor Dance Company.
Born and raised in New Mexico, Mr. Peterson received an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and an undergraduate degree from Claremont McKenna College.
Sponsors & Contributors
S&P Global Ratings
Alexandra Dimitrijevic
Global Head of Research & Development
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Atul Arya, Ph.D.
Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist
Dr. Atul Arya is Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights. He is responsible for integrating energy content, analysis and insights across the entire energy value chain and for c-suite client engagements.
His areas of expertise include business strategy, commercial analysis, oil markets, energy technologies, climate change and renewables. He has previously led Energy Insight, Research and Analysis and Energy Research teams at S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global). Dr. Atul previously worked for BP for over 20 years in a number of operational, business, technical and strategic positions around the world. His career includes international leadership experience in a diverse array of energy fields spanning strategy development, business planning, field operations and technology commercialization. His experience includes leadership in solar energy development as well as oil and gas. Dr. Atul has previously served on boards of several companies and institutions and is member of the World Economic Forum's Global Future Council on Advanced Energy Technologies and is 25+ year member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. He is a sought-after speaker and moderator at public conferences, company boards and industry events and a member of the CERAWeek leadership team.
He holds B.S., M.S. and Ph. D. degrees in engineering.
S&P Global Ratings
Martina L. Cheung
S&P Global Ratings
President, S&P Global Ratings
Martina L. Cheung is President of S&P Global Ratings. She has ultimate responsibility for all aspects of the business, including commercial, analytical, control, and operations functions.
S&P Global Ratings is regulated in many of the countries in which it operates, and Martina is a director of three of its largest legal entities, S&P Global Ratings Europe Limited, S&P Global Ratings UK Limited and Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. Ms. Cheung also serves as the Executive Lead of S&P Global Sustainable1, supporting to drive the enterprise-wide growth strategy for ESG.
Ms. Cheung is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Economic Club of New York, and served on the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) subcommittee on Climate-Related Market Risk. Ms. Cheung has spoken on key industry topics covering ESG, cyber security, technology and diversity in the workforce across public forums that include the World Economic Forum at Davos, the Institute for International Finance membership meeting, and Politico Women Rule, among others.
Ms. Cheung joined S&P Global in 2010 as Vice President of Operations and went on to serve as S&P Global’s Chief Strategy Officer, where she was responsible for the execution and measurement of S&P Global’s continuing expansion of its global footprint. She also served as Head of Risk Services in S&P Global Market Intelligence, where she leveraged S&P Global’s significant risk intellectual property to serve clients in managing complex risk challenges. She most recently served as President of S&P Global Market Intelligence and Ms. Cheung formally served on the Board of CRISIL.
Ms. Cheung is the Executive Sponsor for the Women’s Initiative for Networking Success (WINS). She also has active involvement in other S&P Global People Resource Groups (PRGs) including Women in Technology (WIT) and S&P Global's LGBTQ+ & Friends PRG (Spectrum). Ms. Cheung’s philanthropic efforts include support for organizations such as Upwardly Global and YWCA.
Prior to joining S&P Global, she worked in the consulting industry, first in Accenture’s Financial Services Strategy group and later as a Partner at Mitchell Madison Consulting. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Commerce and a master’s degree in Business Studies from National University of Ireland, Galway.
S&P Global Mobility
Ali Adim
Senior Research Analyst, Supply Chain & Technology
S&P Global Ratings
Marion Amiot
S&P Global Ratings
Head of Climate Economics & European Economist
Marion Amiot is Head of Climate Economics & European Economist at S&P Global Ratings, based in London. In this position, she develops the Eurozone economic forecasts, provides insight into the economic outlook and conducts in-depth research on key macroeconomic developments and policies.
S&P Global Mobility
Tim Armstrong
Senior Vice President, Planning Solutions
Tim Armstrong heads Automotive Planning Solutions at S&P Global Mobility.
Tim is responsible for the automotive research and analysis of 250 analysts, who help OEMs, suppliers and other automotive stakeholders make better planning decisions. His research interests cover automotive demand especially in emerging markets and new mobility and compliance trends. Recent research topics in the group include new mobility and its impact on the automotive and energy sectors, emissions compliance, and new technology trends.
Tim has twenty-five years of experience in the automotive industry. He holds a Master of Economics degree from the University of Western Australia, and Bachelor's degrees in economics and finance. Languages include English and French.
S&P Global Ratings
Terence Chan, CFA
Managing Director and Senior Research Fellow, Credit Research & Insights
S&P Global Ratings
Miriam Fernández, CFA
Director, Analytical Innovation
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Gruenwald, Ph.D.
S&P Global Ratings
Global Chief Economist
S&P Global
Nathan Hunt
S&P Global
Head of Content & Digital Marketing
S&P Global Ratings
Christine Ip
Associate, Credit Research APAC
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Alex Johnston
451 Research, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence
Research Analyst
Alex Johnston is a research analyst on the 451 Research Data, AI & Analytics team at S&P Global Market Intelligence. He focuses on emerging technologies and how they can be applied in business contexts. Alex's primary coverage areas are artificial intelligence, distributed ledger technology, event stream processing and data marketplaces.
Before joining S&P Global Market Intelligence, Alex was a principal analyst at Procurement Leaders, leading much of the research on procurement and supply chain. His specialty focus was procurement and supply chain technology markets, advising chief procurement officers on digital roadmaps and building out a suite of diagnostic tools. He has a background in qualitative and quantitative research and has significant data science experience. Alex holds a history degree from the University of Warwick.
Alex’s recent areas of concentration include monitoring the emerging generative AI market, tracking the evolution in blockchain use cases and investigating real-time architectures.
S&P Global Ratings
Sudeep Kesh
Chief Innovation Officer
S&P Global
Shankar Krishnamurthy
Head of EssentialTech COE and Innovation, S&P Global
S&P Global Ratings
Gregg Lemos-Stein
S&P Global Ratings
Chief Analytical Officer, Corporate Ratings
Gregg Lemos-Stein is a Managing Director and Chief Analytical Officer for Corporate Ratings at S&P Global Ratings. He is also co-chair of the Global Credit Conditions Committee, a cross-asset class group of senior analysts and economists. In his Chief Analytical Officer role, Gregg is responsible for analytical excellence and ratings consistency, the quality and timeliness of credit publications, and the creation and coordination of cross-sector and thematic research.
Gregg joined S&P Global Ratings in 2002 and has had a wide range of analytical and managerial roles in New York and London. Prior to his current position, Gregg was head of Analytics & Research for Corporate Ratings. He was previously Analytical Manager for the EMEA real estate sector and also led a team of analysts covering diversified sectors in Israel. Prior to that, he was analytical manager for the U.S. telecom and cable ratings team. He was a senior analyst in the U.S. autos and auto suppliers team from 2006 to 2010.
Before joining S&P Global Ratings, Gregg worked for The Dreyfus Corporation and its parent Mellon Financial Corp. Gregg was also a business reporter for The Associated Press for several years.
Gregg holds a Masters of Business Administration from Columbia University in New York and a bachelor of arts from The University of Chicago. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst.
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Jeff Meyer
Director, Energy and Mobility
S&P Global Ratings
Marko Mrsnik
Managing Director, Sovereign Ratings
S&P Global Ratings
Joydeep Mukherji
Sector Lead, Sovereign Ratings, Americas
S&P Global Sustainable1
Paul Munday, Ph.D.
S&P Global Ratings
Director Climate Adaptation & Resilience Global Expert
Paul Munday is a Director, Climate Adaptation & Resilience Specialist at S&P Global Ratings, where he leads and coordinates S&P Global Ratings’ research and application of climate adaptation and resilience analytics.
Paul works at the interface between data and research, leveraging his expertise to help improve clarity of the credit impacts from climate risks.
Paul’s experience at S&P Global Ratings has included the leadership of, and contribution to, numerous commentaries and market outreach, including the application of climate analytics to different sectors and asset classes including U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, U.S. investor-owned utilities, U.S. Public Finance and global airports, amongst others.
Paul has over a decade of experience in both the UK and abroad, providing advice to private and public sector clients across multiple sectors to help mainstream consideration of climate resilience into projects and programmes. Prior to joining S&P Global Ratings, Paul worked in climate risk consultancy at both Atkins and WSP.
Paul is a Chartered Scientist (C.Sci) and Chartered Water and Environment Manager (C.WEM), and is also a certified expert in climate adaptation finance by the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management.
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Carlos Pascual
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Head of Geopolitics & International Affairs
Carlos Pascual es vicepresidente senior de Energía Global y Asuntos Internacionales de S&P Global Commodity Insights, responsable de liderar todas las líneas de negocios en América Latina.
Como enviado de energía y coordinador de asuntos energéticos internacionales de los Estados Unidos, Carlos estableció y dirigió la nueva Oficina de Recursos Energéticos en el Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos y fue asesor principal del Secretario de Estado en temas de energía. Anteriormente había sido Embajador de los Estados Unidos tanto en México como en Ucrania y fue asistente especial del Presidente y sucesivamente como director y luego director senior para Rusia, Ucrania y Eurasia en el Consejo de Seguridad Nacional. En la Institución Brookings, Carlos se desempeñó como vicepresidente y director de estudios de política exterior y lanzó la Iniciativa de Seguridad Energética de Brookings. Enseñó y escribió sobre geopolítica energética en la Universidad de Columbia. Carlos creó el cargo de coordinador de reconstrucción y estabilización, estableciendo la primera capacidad de respuesta civil del Departamento de Estado a los conflictos. También fue coordinador del Departamento de Estado para la asistencia estadounidense a Europa y Eurasia. También ocupó cargos de liderazgo en la Agencia de los Estados Unidos para el Desarrollo Internacional, incluso como administrador asistente adjunto para Europa y Eurasia, jefe de política y estrategia para África y en puestos de campo en Mozambique, Sudáfrica y Sudán.
Carlos recibió su Maestría en Políticas Públicas de la Escuela de Gobierno Kennedy de la Universidad de Harvard y su Licenciatura en Artes de la Universidad de Stanford. Su libro, Power and Responsibility, ganó un premio en 2009 al mejor libro de ciencia política publicado por una editorial independiente.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Nick Patience
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Research Director
Nick Patience is lead analyst for AI and machine learning for 451 Research, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence. He is part of the company's Data, AI & Analytics research channel but also works across the entire research team to uncover and understand use cases for machine learning, an area he has been researching since 2001. Nick also oversees 451's Workforce Productivity & Collaboration research and is a member of 451 Research's Center of Excellence for Quantum Technologies.
Nick Patience is lead analyst for AI and machine learning for 451 Research, a part of S&P Global Market Intelligence. He is part of the company's Data, AI & Analytics research channel but also works across the entire research team to uncover and understand use cases for machine learning, an area he has been researching since 2001. Nick also oversees 451's Workforce Productivity & Collaboration research and is a member of 451 Research's Center of Excellence for Quantum Technologies.
Nick is a frequent speaker on the industry use cases for AI and the infrastructure that underpins its development and deployment.
Nick has a long background in research into how applications can take advantage of data – in particular unstructured data – using AI and machine learning. He is a cofounder of 451 Research and rejoined the team in 2015 after almost three years running product marketing at machine learning-driven eDiscovery software company Recommind (now part of OpenText). He has held various senior management roles at 451 Research in both in New York and London since 1999.
Prior to starting 451 Research, Nick was a financial and technology journalist with ComputerWire (now part of Datamonitor) in London and New York. Nick has a master's degree in computing science from the University of London, and a BA in Philosophy and Music from Middlesex University.
S&P Global Ratings
Jose Perez-Gorozpe
S&P Global Ratings
Head of Credit Research Emerging Markets
Jose Perez-Gorozpe is the Head Credit Research for Emerging Markets and chairs the credit conditions committee for Emerging Markets. Credit Conditions Committees meet quarterly to review macroeconomic conditions in each of four regions (Asia-Pacific, Emerging Markets, North America, and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa). Discussions center on identifying credit risks and their potential ratings impact in various sectors, as well as borrowing and lending trends for businesses and consumers.
Jose also chairs the Emerging Markets Risk and Research Hub. This Hub coordinates our economists, research analysts and senior practice representatives to determine our house view on key macro and credit trends.
Jose spent ten years as part of the Financial Institutions analytical team in Mexico’s City office. He was responsible for the analysis of several financial systems in Latin American countries including Brazil, Chile Colombia, Peru and Mexico. He also performed credit rating analysis for several insurance companies and the largest banks in the region. Previously, he was responsible for the analysis of various local and regional governments, other public entities and water utilities for the International Public Finance Ratings team.
Jose joined S&P Global Ratings in November 2003 and holds a BA in Economics from Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) and a Master’s Degree in Banks and Financial Markets from Universidad Anahuac.
S&P Global Ratings
Roberto Sifon-Arevalo
S&P Global Ratings
Chief Analytical Officer, Sovereign and IPF Ratings
S&P Global Ratings
Eunice Tan
Head of Credit Research, Asia-Pacific
S&P Global Ratings
David Tesher
S&P Global Ratings
Head of Credit Research, North America
David Tesher is a Managing Director and the Head of U.S. Corporate Research at S&P Global Ratings. The U.S. Corporate Research Team is responsible for researching, writing and publishing topical credit and sector specific commentaries. In addition to coordinating thought leadership research efforts for U.S. Corporate Ratings, David also leads the North American Corporate Ratings Group on the North American Credit Conditions Committee and Portfolio Analytics Team. His responsibilities include identifying and disseminating macroeconomic trends that are then consistently used across sectors, and coordinating credit research efforts across U.S. Corporate Ratings.
David initially joined Standard & Poor’s U.S. Structured Finance Group in 1995. Shortly thereafter, David formed Standard & Poor’s CDO Group, and was a Practice Leader responsible for managing Standard & Poor’s U.S. Cash Flow CDO business prior to transitioning to the Corporate & Government Ratings Group in 2010.
Before joining S&P Global Ratings, David was a commercial lender and senior credit officer with National Westminster Bank PLC, responsible for corporate lending and the monitoring of credit policy for the firm's corporate loan portfolio.
David holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business and Economics from Lafayette College.
S&P Global Ratings
Samuel Tilleray
Associate Director, Sovereign Ratings,
Emmanuel Volland
Global Sector Lead, Financial Institutions
S&P Global Ratings
Paul Watters, CFA
S&P Global Ratings
Managing Director, Head of European Credit Research
Paul Watters is Head of European Credit Research for S&P Global Ratings. Since 2017 he has been the chair of S&P’s European Credit Conditions Committee where senior analysts and economists examine macro credit trends and risks factors that may broadly impact Credit Ratings.
Prior to his current role Paul has held various senior product development, analytical, and research roles within S&P’s Leveraged Finance Group since joining S&P in January 2002, that included being a primary analyst for a portfolio of high yield credits in the metals and mining, chemicals, and oil and gas sectors.
Previous to S&P, Paul spent almost fifteen years working in debt capital markets in various senior trading and research roles with both Lehman Brothers and Nomura International.
Paul is a CFA Charterholder, and a Fellow of the Association of Corporate Treasurers.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Ken Wattret
Vice-President, Global Economics
Ken Wattret is the Global Economist within the Analysis and Insights team at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Ken oversees global economic forecasting and analysis and supports a broad spectrum of corporate and financial clients. Ken has worked as an economist in the financial sector since the early 1990s including for HSBC and BNP Paribas where he was the head of market economics for the euro area. Prior to joining IHS Markit (now part of S&P Global) as Chief European Economist in 2018, Ken was a Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard, an independent research provider. He is a well-known commentator in financial media.
Ken received his honors degree in economics from the University of Sheffield and holds post-graduate qualifications in finance.
S&P Global Ratings
Ruth Yang
Global Head of Ratings Thought Leadership
Managing Director, Global Head of Ratings Thought Leadership
Ruth oversees news and research content production for Leveraged Commentary & Data. She has spent 14 years at LCD, and has been in the loan market for 18 years. Prior to her current role Ruth spent seven years as LCD's chief of operations, supervising the unit's business strategies, and before that Ruth oversaw the launch of LCD's European research business, as well as construction of the S&P/LSTA European Leveraged Loan Index (she also supervised implentation of the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index). Ruth also has had stints at the LSTA - overseeing the LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Data service - Fremont General/Fremont Financial, Sanford Bernstein, and Aspen Performance Group.
S&P Global Ratings
Yucheng Zheng
Director, Credit Research & Insights
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